April 2026

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North Bay Real Estate Market Forecast: April–May 2026

Sonoma, Marin & Mendocino Counties

As we move into the heart of the spring season, the North Bay real estate market is showing signs of normalization after several years of volatility. April and May are traditionally the most active months of the year - and 2026 is shaping up to be a balanced, opportunity-filled market for both buyers and sellers.

A Market in Transition

Across Sonoma, Marin, and Mendocino counties, the market is best described as:

Stable, supply-constrained, and selectively competitive

Inventory is increasing compared to the past few years, giving buyers more options. However, supply still isn’t high enough to create a true buyer’s market. At the same time, higher mortgage rates are keeping demand in check, preventing rapid price growth.

What to Expect This Spring

Inventory is Rising - but Not Flooding

Spring listings are hitting the market, especially in April, giving buyers more choices than they’ve had in recent years. That said, inventory remains below long-term averages, which continues to support home values.

Prices Are Holding Steady

Home prices across the North Bay are expected to remain relatively flat, with modest growth in some areas:

• Sonoma County: Stable with slight upward pressure, especially in entry-level markets
• Marin County: Stronger pricing, particularly for move-in-ready homes in desirable locations
• Mendocino County: More variability, with some areas seeing flat or slightly declining prices

Buyers Are Regaining Leverage

For the first time in years, buyers are gaining negotiating power. This may include:

• Requesting seller credits
• Taking more time to make decisions
• Avoiding bidding wars on less competitive properties

However, well-priced, turnkey homes in prime locations are still attracting strong interest.

Sellers Must Be Strategic

The days of pricing high and expecting multiple offers are largely behind us. In today’s market:

• Accurate pricing is critical
• Homes that are updated and well-presented sell faster
• Overpriced properties are more likely to sit and require reductions

A “Split Market” Reality

One of the most important trends right now is the growing divide between property types:

• Highly desirable homes (updated, well-located, move-in ready)
  Continue to sell quickly, sometimes with multiple offers
• Average or outdated homes
  Taking longer to sell, with more negotiation and price adjustments

County-by-County Snapshot

Sonoma County
Balanced market with improving inventory. Entry-level and well-priced homes see the most activity.

Marin County
Still the most competitive in the region, though more measured than in recent years. Strong demand for quality homes.

Mendocino County
Slower-paced and more price-sensitive. Buyers have the most negotiating power here.

The Bottom Line

The Spring 2026 market in the North Bay is not defined by extremes. Instead, it reflects a healthier, more sustainable environment:

• No crash
• No surge
• Steady activity with improving balance

This is the most “normal” spring market we’ve seen in years—creating real opportunities for both buyers and sellers who approach it strategically.

”At Home with April!“ is a publication that you’re welcome to use, share, and review. You’re always welcome to contact me directly with any questions you have pertaining to Real Estate.

The best compliment a business professional can receive is that of entrusting them with you business and/or referral. This absolutely holds true for me. Thank you for believing in me to represent the sale or purchase of your properties. Very excited to share what has been taking place and what is yet to come, inside this edition of my newsletter!I

Lots of butter, eggs, dairy princesses, parades, celebrations, and more!